The way to avoid the ills of the narrative fallacy is to favor experimentation over storytelling, experience over history, and clinical knowledge over theories. Taleb, Nassim. The Black Swan (p. 84). Penguin Books Ltd. Kindle Edition.
There you go! You need to test everything. You also need to take the knowledge you show in your newsletter into practice.
So empiricism is the help
its crucial at my work. Dont get fooled that you knoe the answer. You must test it ffs!
It's to oof
How to handle complex (seemingly random) information if we shouldn't compress it?
Splitting it up into smaller parts? You can then test them more quickly. Also, smaller parts have less Black Swans, because you're simplifying less. So you can get an understanding of a complex thing by splitting it into less complex parts which you can understand and then combine them to understand the whole. It also relates to knowing the basics. Understanding the building blocks of the subject will make you less liable to oversimplification because you'll already have true parts of it. This also speaks to first principles thinking as a tool to splitting and getting to the truth.
Experimentation?
Using computers?
Finding answers from others, preferably elders or old books, because they're the repositories of complicated inductive learning which passed the test of time.
Giving it time—"procrastinating" on reaching conclusions—saying "I don't know" until it plays itself out or until you reach greater understanding by following the previous steps or until the unconscious connects the dots (link to time of slack and better decision making)