Szymon's Zettelkasten

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R: Decisive by Chip and Dan Heath

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P: How to thrive in a Black Swan dominated world

It combines with promotion and prevention mindset from R: Decisive by Chip and Dan Heath. If it's promotion—i.e., creating something—you should prioritize those with low negative impact (because the probably have a higher positive impact) because inaction may cause you leave gains on the table. If it's prevention—i.e., avoiding something—you should prioritize based on impact because inaction can kill you.

P: How to thrive in a Black Swan dominated world

One's aim, especially if they frequently reside in Extremistan, is to design small experiments to test their hypotheses (i.e., to Ooch R: Decisive by Chip and Dan Heath). Wanna become a laywer? Before applying to college, try an internship at a law firm. Wanna become a writer? Before quitting your job, try to write after hours for 3 months and get 10 readers. Wanna become a vegan? Before throwing out all animal foods try to eat vegetables for a week. Wanna move out to Italy? Before selling your home and quitting your job go there for 1 month and see if you like it. And so on.

P: Why can't we see Black Swans?

Looking here, isn't it very similar to WRAP from Decisive? Widening your options is for sensualization Reality-testing is for tunnel vision Attaining distance is for Preparing to be wrong is for epistemic arrogance. Ah... I don't know. I feel that there's something missing in this whole bias shit. Or we have a wrong model for it as this one writer said. We look at it as deviations from the norm—rationality. Where in reality rationality is not the norm. But maybe it is the norm but not in the extremistan environment? I don't know.