The lesson for the small is: be human! Accept that being human involves some amount of epistemic arrogance in running your affairs. Do not be ashamed of that. Do not try to always withhold judgment—opinions are the stuff of life. Do not try to avoid predicting—yes, after this diatribe about prediction I am not urging you to stop being a fool. Just be a fool in the right places.fn2 What you should avoid is unnecessary dependence on large-scale harmful predictions—those and only those. Avoid the big subjects that may hurt your future: be fooled in small matters, not in the large. Do not listen to economic forecasters or to predictors in social science (they are mere entertainers), but do make your own forecast for the picnic. By all means, demand certainty for the next picnic; but avoid government social-security forecasts for the year 2040. Know how to rank beliefs not according to their plausibility but by the harm they may cause.
Taleb, Nassim. The Black Swan (p. 203). Penguin Books Ltd. Kindle Edition.
Be human
its also an antidote to hyper rationalism
We can't avoid our irrationality. What we can do however is to avoid its impact. Therefore, be irrational in matters where being wrong doesn't have a detrimental impact—like planing your picnic or choosing what to wear. But don't let your irrationality fool you in big things that can kill you like predicting financial markets (just save), future trends, etc. There you want to cue out your System 1 and don't get into unnecessary risk.