P: Mediocristan and Extremistan

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Taleb separates reality into two worlds: Mediocristan and Extremistan.

Mediocristan is symmetric and predictable—a given input results in a predictable and usually proportionable output. You put your hand into fire, you get burned; you throw the ball at the basket, you either miss or score; you check-mate the king, you win; you work for 8 hours as a waiter, you get 8 times the hourly rate; and so on.

Extremistan is asymmetric and hard to predict—inputs are distant from and can lead to massive outputs. Most of the wealth is ending up in the hands of the few; a writer is publishing books for 10 years without results and suddenly his next book becomes a hit, making him a millionaire; there are 100 years of peace and all of the sudden the biggest war in history breaks out. Extremistan is where Black Swans rule.

Mediocristan is the reality we evolved for. Extremistan is well... too extreme for us because it doesn't address our linear and sensory needs. More: P: We evolved for Mediocristan

Why is Extremistan extreme? It's extreme because it lacks physical constraints that would "slow it down;" therefore, it can scale indefinitely. An increase of output doesn't require a proportionate increase in input. A writer doesn't have to write a new book every time someone wants to buy it from him. Also, because Extremistan operates mostly in the abstract it spreads almost instantaneously. Add free replication and free and rapid distribution and you have compound growth which characterizes Extremistan. More: P: Why is Extremistan extreme?

Extremistan works in jumps (as opposed to linear progression). Taleb says "modern reality rarely gives us the privilege of a satisfying, linear, positive progression: you may think about a problem for a year and learn nothing; then, unless you are disheartened by the emptiness of the results and give up, something will come to you in a flash." It grows exponentially but since we're blind to it it surprises us, when it finally appears. This leads to an illusion that our reality evolves in jumps. The truth is it doesn't (it builds in the background), we just don't see it.

How do you know you're in Extremistan? If creating another copy of a thing doesn't cost you anything, then you're probably in Extremistan. So, code; content; investments, equity, debt; philosophies/ideas/memes(?); reputation (aren't all these things simply types of information which is Extremistan and intersubjective. Isn't intersubjectivity ); large physical objects like snowballs, meteors (not sure but maybe because they're growing with little marginal cost? What makes some physical things extremistan and others not?); what else?; where do wars fit in?

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